Monday, September 26, 2011

Fall Back to Spring Ahead

OK, as indicated in previous comments , we are going to need to fall back in order to spring ahead. Lower rates going lower to paper over the Fed's wrong moves of earlier years.
Bargains are perceived when they fall 30% + off previous highs. Volume on the sales side is absolutely pathetic. Blame the banks, who blame the gov't and the new regs. Everyone is afraid of their shadow. No body wants to dive in the pool until other folks do. Confidence is the key ingredient lacking in the recipe for economic growth. Healthcare costs unknown, implied tax rates unknown, LT that is. Companies don't hire for short term, they temp it out. Bldg. lease prices are falling in concert with sales comps. The towns are getting flooded with tax appeal requests and the engines that drive retired pension benefits etc., are from real estate taxes. We are all working 2x as hard for 1/2 as much since the regular deal volume has slowed. America is learning to live with less as evidenced by all the furniture companies sales being hit super hard. Prices must reflect the real economy, denial phase of the cycle is probably where we are at. People will work for less. The education, healthcare costs must be driven down. I think the jobs our kids will have in 20 years from now don't exist today. Preparing students for 2032 world is going to involve speaking at least 1 or 2 foreign languages. BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India and China )and Korea as well
will be dominant real estate forces as their engines only get stronger and their middle class grows. Eyes are on Europe this September, when Greek 1 year bonds pay 60%, default is a matter of weeks. Stay tuned. Germany has probably realized they have to carry Greece on its back in order to protect their country's currency.

Sunday, March 27, 2011

2011 Q1 Summary

Bid and ask of commercial real estate coming in. Sellers are getting more in tune to the changing
playing conditions. Its not enough to have 2 parties agree to a sales contract. Sellers and Buyers better 1st check with the bank to see what their position is before the fees start coming on the due diligence. Absorption among some of the better geographically positioned properties are being leased all be it at 20% discounts. Many , many things must happen in order for this recovery to maintain an upward bias. Interest rates, oil prices, unemployment, political unrest and I mean London yesterday not the Middle East could derail the positive outlook. If any one of these issues gets more negative , all bets are off. Lets not forget inflation. Right NOW, things we NEED are inflating, ie.. food and energy and things we WANT are deflating. I think the gold/silver metal inflation edge is a combination of Asian countries looking to diversify out of the dollar into hard metal assets and ETF speculators have pushed up these prices 10-15% more than normal. Meaning that margin calls could wipe out a year to date gain in a matter of days. Watching the stock value of Prologis and First Industrial to get a read on how the debt will be managed as it matures. Follow the institutional money into these if you see highers highs and lower lows but be cautious if these can't hold. They both are at a crossroads of indecision as far the markets preceiving their value. It may be better to own the stock equity of real estate investment trusts vs. the actual real estate in the short to medium term. Resaon being , they are more liquid in a time of any crisis.