Stalemate Sales Market

Buyers don't want to pay 2006 prices, seller's aren't moving off the highest closing sale numbers attained in their market. Thus no new supply, limited demand , creating stagnation and it looks like it will here for the rest of 2008. With very few foreclosures in the commercial arena, there will be a fall/winter scenario being set-up for the pivot pt. to move the mkt. in one direction or the other. The best bet right now would be for LOWER prices and even more lower prices as we get into 1st quarter of 2009. Local lenders are trying their best to gather mkt. share from the big guys as they try to get their house back in order.

August- Commercial RE Still Holding

OK, folks, looks like the tenant has more negotiating power in August vs. July. There are VERY FEW MAJOR DEALS getting done. CB Richard Ellis stock plunged on the 2008 sales volume news and Jones Lang along with Grubb&Ellis followed suit. Its all 100,000 sf and under deals getting done. A very hot area is 10,000-50,000 sf for some reason. We are talking warehouses...as far as office space ....one by one sublet space is coming up in bldgs.. as large companies cut back and those cheap sublets really do effect the psychology of the landlord's asking rent direct. The closing sale prices have FROZEN up, nothing new coming on the market and NO price reductions.
Surf's up
Chris

Big Banks Freeze Up

The lending at the Big Banks has frozen up.
Local lenders seize the opportunity, Columbia Bank, Peapack-Gladstone among others writing multi-million dollar loans.
Steve and Barry retailer files for the big one.
Looks like the retail rents have once again fallen way south, office rents are holding but more concessions for tenants are coming quickly in the form of free-rent.
Industrial rents are slipping but holding in key mkts. where the vacancy factor is less than 5%.
Less and less and less bigger deals are happening. Lots of 50,000 sf and under flex deals becoming the mainstay of the mkt.
Chris

July 4, 2008 Review

Second half of 2008 kicks off Monday:
Tale of the Tape:
Office Space is primarily holding up around key transportation spots around the Garden State.
Suburban office market is generally weakening under the $4.00 per gallon gas and some developers are offering gas cards for prospective tenant employees on deals that are made at their buildings.

Warehouse Space: The 8A mkt. has softened big time with many >100,000 sf availabilities,
flex space is holding rates below 30,000 sf.
Markets north of Exit 9 are in great shape especially Raritan Center and in and around the Port.
However there seems to be a trend toward the weakening as the vacancy in some of these mkts. were at all-time highs.

Retail Space- More retailers will be falling as the consumer shops at Walmart and the food markets.
Very few bright spots on the trend now deepening into minor to moderate vacancies across the main retail roads of the Garden State. The Costco's and BJ's are getting good traffic but looks like the rebate cks. have helped and they will not be around in the 4th quarter.

Chris Galiano