Sunday, September 28, 2008

TheGreatBailout Begins

Well folks, $700 billion is about as much as your going to get. After that we're on our own.
By the time the dust settles, Wachovia will merge and toxic debt as we know it will become
options held by the USA. We can all agree SOMETHING MAJOR had to be done AND quickly.
Office and warehouse pricing needs to be unfrozen with a blowtorch asap as to allow the systems to function in an orderly fashion. Retail leasing will suffer in Q4 but the real impact on the economy will be lending will be back with a fury. Without lending all the NJ firms report sales off 65-85%.
I don't think you see much written about the desert-like feeling of a 105 degree desert , dry with no real sellers, some buyers and few lenders. Yes, there are deals getting done, but they were teed up early in 2008 if not 2007 and are only now closing.
All in all, if this gives us the time we need to sort out the balance sheets then its all worth it. Then we can judge what and which assets are really worth.
Chris

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

September 2008

Is Lehman the next BearStearns, we'll know on Wednesday 9/10.
The REITS are holding their own but the retail #'s are hurting the store growth in the USA, if the
reits like ProLogis have Int'l exposure, then they are growing in Asia while flat in the Americas.
However the US reits with retail only exposure are flat lined from here on till the end of 2008.
Locally, we are at a pivot point , oil continues to fall hard and we could have $2.75 per gallon gas in a few weeks. Making trucking to Exit 8A less expensive and possibly filling more space down there as a result. Time will tell. Small flex is doing well Everywhere, office is still stumbling along while medical office space is behaving well and continues to grow.
Stay tuned,
Chris