February 21, 2010-Activity Picking UP!!

OK, I think what we are seeing in the last few weeks is activity picking up by at least 20%, with quality space moving because the landlords have waited long enough and finally lowered rates to meet the bid. Industrial space centered around the Exits on the NJ Turnpike north of 8A are experiencing much more activity than January, chalk it up to many things but first and foremost is the deals are out there, the offers are made , it is now up to the landlords to realize that deflation has taken hold. Deflation of assets means much lower rentals, rental prices we haven't seen in 15 years. Empty space is no way to prosperity, therefor, better to have it occupied to find the path to a better rental market in the future. 2 Major woodworking shops in Middlesex County, NJ shut down, the business is not profitable with the lack of volume of orders. Steel fabrication is still doing good. Plastics will always be with us as well. Food and beverage continues to be steady as always. Arizona Ice Tea's purchase of the nearly 500,000 sf box in Edison (formerly Bradlees a long time ago)will be great for the Raritan Center market, now next up is the Fuji bldg. and the nearly 700,000 sf at the NY Times bldg.
I will not be surprised with a major deal being announced by April 1st on either one of these bldgs. Great landlords make deals and both bldgs. have both. We will have significant vacancy throughout 2010 but this will be the year that tenant's can step and grab a bldg. they never would have looked at before because of price and make a 5 year fixed rental deal at numbers not seen before.
As far as sales, banks are still extending and pretending, previous posts explained this procedure whereby the banks refuse to proceed with going after non-performing loans.
Stay tuned, watch for the REIT Index over the next few weeks as a cue to see if can break through and make new highs, LXP, Lexington Property trust I have my eye on as a litmus test, as well as watching to see how the Simon property/General Growth shakeout. Oh, and by the way, prediction, BLACKSTONE moves the market bigtime with M and A and the Graham packaging IPO start the ball rolling.
Christoper Galiano, Managing Director, SIOR
NAI DiLeo-Bram & Co.
cgaliano@naidileobram.com
732-985-3000

February Snow and Markets Fall Too!

Looks like we are going to reach lower lows in rental prices in 2010, the monster 1,300,000 sf box at Exit 8A leased to Williams Sonoma , the 500,000 sf to GIII took a small chunk out of the empty space but at 40% discounts to the 2007 mkt. ie: returns of cash on cash below 5%, not what investors were looking for went construction started. Nowadays 5% is better than -30%.

There will be slightly more sales in 2010, with gov't increasing cap. gains causing some sellers to sell vs. fish. The only problem is ALL this can't happen fast enough as the spiral of descending rents continue.

Increase in commission rates and incentives JUST for showing space will continue to be the norm in 2010, where almost any credible deal is a good deal vs. the pick and choose your deal of 2007. If I hear about one more group that has or is putting together a distressed asset fund then I reckon we will have One heck of a frenzied auction for these CMBS assets as they unwind, and the price of settlement will be lower than most folks realize.

Happy Holidays!

Getting to be Christmas time!
New Gov. coming to Trenton, looking to get development going again, cause gang without real estate construction and the jobs it creates, NJ will have a 3-5 year period of stagnant doldrums. Commercial real estate nowadays is a tenant/landlord renegotiation. If you have a lease coming up for renewal, its probably a good bet you'll pay less next year. As far as sales, the volume is the lowest it has been in memory. Deals just can't get financed even IF the parties agree on price. There will be a major shift in volume if the US decides to increase the cap. gains rate which will spur a rush to exit the commercial investor property market and save sellers the increased tax for holding on. Besides rental rates on some bldgs. in Piscataway NJ are the same as they were 20 years ago.

Stay tuned for more inventory to hit the market BIG in 2010. Telling investors to BE PATIENT.
Happy Holidays!,
Chris Galiano, SIOR
Managing Director
NAI DiLeo-Bram & Co.
cgaliano@naidileobram.com

OK Now its Fall and Look out Below

With all the data for the year in for 3 quarters., looks like we are in for a serious reset of asset values, all across the board. The offers being presented by tenants are chock full of free-rent and 20-40% off peak prices. On the actual demand for bldgs. below 50,000 sf , demand is strong, tenant's who missed the 1st wave and were out there paddling , found a new set of waves coming through with sellers who want out. There are few and far sellers who want out but that number is increasing. Listing volume is way up. LOTS of space, not enough demand. The way to look at this whole thing, the Commercial Real Estate sector is there are no buyers for investments without good credit tenants or else a 50% off the price. There are pockets of leasing activity dominated by credit tenants looking to capitalize on the price reduction. The SBA programs whereby the US gov't guarantees a significant portion of a bank's loan to a borrower of commercial real estate with only 10% is the only area that has some volume. Conventional lending is as dry as the desert. The banks just do not want to make any mistakes and loaning money without being able to see over the horizon is a risk. Its a fun time to be advising businesses right now because you can draw on 1991 experiences and explain how difficult it could get yet remaining optimistic to be nimble and ready for the right deal. As always cash is king in most any market. as for now a lot of that cash is stuck at <1% treasury yields, it won't stay there for long.
Chris Galiano
Managing Director
NAI DiLeoBram & Co.
1315 Stelton Rd.
Piscataway, NJ 08854
cgaliano@naidileobram.com

No Summer Heat in Commercial RE

Looks like no 90 degree days for NJ, that also bodes for the real estate activity for sales of Office and Industrial property. The spread on the bid/ask is still far apart and the two sides are getting closer on deciding on what a property is worth. Looked at a property today that had an apprisal done recently and used comps from 2006-8 and is THAT the market to judge value? I think not,
over-levered, plentiful loans available created the bubble. Now its time to see what's left of the balloon. Our office banged out nice number of deals the past weeks, more than earlier this year, which we feel is a good sign of decisions starting to get made vs. a fire drill of touring bldgs., only to have corporate reevaluate and sit on the sidelines.

Rates are going down which should help. Forget all that nonsense of inflation, hyper-inflation for now, if Everyone is singing the same song, I want to be on the other side of that trade. There will be a time and place for a re-inflate taking place BUT NOT ANYTIME SOON. Until then deals will get done that HAVE to get done. Buyers who have missed the 1st train in 2006-7 are now stepping up. Let's just see if we have willing sellers.
Chris Galiano, SIOR
NAI DiLeo-Bram & Co.
1315 Stelton Rd.
Pisccataway, NJ 08854
cgaliano@naidileobram.com

Chris Galiano-2009 NJ Commercial RE Advisor

The role of commercial real estate brokers has changed from performing duties as a transactional type of service provider to more of a business advisor. We are now looking at how to prepare for excess space, renegotiating rental terms, viewing the market and reporting back to clients more frequently so not to miss an early trend. So far the trend has been to buckle-up and use your space as efficiently as possible and stay put unless there is a great deal and there are.

Central New Jersey is a hotbed of activity as it relates to distribution of consumer products.
1/3 of the USA lives within 5 hrs. of NY City, so we need places to store all that product that we love to buy.Whether it be soap and paper towels, olive oil or clothes.,the "big boxes" that line the NJ Turnpike are the marquis names of consumer staples alike. The real whispers out there lately are ,"how low you think they'll go". I showed property last week and the customer within 30 seconds of inspecting a mid-size warehouse in Central NJ said, "This will work but I am shopping the cheapest deal" , so its off to the races to see which of the owners wants to fill the space and discount the rent to do it.
Got to go, the market forces are at work and when the dust settles the well-located properties will rent and the other ones not may be sold or leased CHEAP.
Chris Galiano, SIOR
NAI DiLeoBram & Co,
cgaliano@naidileobram.com
732-985-3000

July 10,2009 More of The Same

Looks like July will be a repeat of June, the way this is starting out. Deals are getting done at the 10-40,000 sf mark at a somewhat decent pace all be it at least at 50% volume levels of 2008.
Rates are are still lowering as we see CPI in a NEGATIVE situation for the northeast. Much like the hotels throwing in a free massage with their room but maintaining the room rate. Owners are throwing in free rent , more of it and maintaining the face rate of late 1st quarter 2009.

THE WEIRD PART IS: You are more likely to SELL a bldg at current market for sizes 25-50,000 sf then lease it. What economy? Now there won't be $100 psf on the contract but maybe a surprising number despite the market conditions. What about AIG's bldg in NYC at $100 psf for 1,000,000 sf , NOW that's deflation! That bargain is being SCOOPED up by the foreign investors quicker they can write their check.

Many, many I mean many strip centers will soon feel the wrath of the refi illness. If you have problems on the refi , then we'll soon see supply hit the market in a big way, at decent prices..
Stay tuned for more Summer News...
Chris Galiano, SIOR
Managing Director
NAI DiLeo-Bram & Co.
cgaliano@naidileobram.com
732-985-3000